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Geopolitics

507 markets

World

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

8%
$2.1M Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
World

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

11%
$1.7M Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
Geopolitics

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

3%
$1.4M Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

OOctober 3178%
NNovember 3037%
6 more
$866.5K Vol.•Oct 31, 2026

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

September 30, 202650%
December 31, 202650%
2 more
$757.6K Vol.•Jun 23, 2027

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 3181%
December 3147%
4 more
$704.7K Vol.•Dec 31, 2026
World

US military draft authorized in 2026?

4%
$544.3K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
World

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?

5%
$535.2K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

December 3134%
October 315%
2 more
$518.5K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027
World

Will Russia capture Sumy by...?

5%
$449.2K Vol.•Ends Apr 1, 2027
World

UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

6%
$355.2K Vol.•Ends Dec 31, 2026
World

Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?

3%
$337.5K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Trump x Greenland deal signed by...?

September 23100%
September 25100%
1 more
$335.2K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027
World

India strike on Pakistan by...?

11%
$333.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?

858%
932%
6 more
$327.6K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?

September 30100%
October 31100%
3 more
$324.0K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027
World

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

16%
$296.7K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
World

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?

5%
$295.5K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
World

NATO article 5 before 2027?

5%
$283.1K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
World

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

11%
$281.5K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
World

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

2%
$255.9K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Benjamin Netanyahu31%
Naftali Bennett13%
6 more
$249.0K Vol.•Oct 28, 2026
World

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

4%
$248.9K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

Hormuz Agreement; R Senate2%
Hormuz Agreement; D Senate3%
1 more
$241.8K Vol.•Nov 4, 2026
World

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

5%
$231.0K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?

December 311%
June 30, 20279%
$225.5K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027
World

China x India military clash by...?

6%
$222.3K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
World

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

1%
$195.6K Vol.•Ends Nov 1, 2026
World

Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

2%
$195.4K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
World

U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?

4%
$186.4K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
World

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

3%
$180.0K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Donald Trump50%
Pope Leo XIV0%
6 more
$176.7K Vol.•Apr 1, 2027

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

OOil < $80; R Senate3%
OOil < $80; D Senate4%
2 more
$165.7K Vol.•Nov 4, 2026

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202725%
October 312%
2 more
$163.3K Vol.•Jul 1, 2027
World

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

3%
$161.0K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
World

Will US annex any territory in 2026?

4%
$157.7K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Ukraine coup attempt by...?

December 31, 20266%
December 31, 202722%
$153.2K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028
World

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?

2%
$142.9K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3138%
October 317%
1 more
$135.7K Vol.•Dec 31, 2026
World

Will Russia capture Sloviansk by...?

5%
$129.3K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
World

US charges Hormuz fees by...?

4%
$126.7K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
World

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

11%
$125.1K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
Geopolitics

NATO dissolves before 2027?

1%
$125.1K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
World

Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...?

3%
$124.0K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
World

Russia nuclear test by...?

5%
$122.4K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
World

UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

5%
$121.8K Vol.•Ends Dec 31, 2026
World

Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...?

2%
$120.2K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027
World

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?

4%
$119.9K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027