Politics

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

8%

$2.1M Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Brazil Presidential Election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva23%

Flávio Bolsonaro77%

$1.9M Vol.Oct 26, 2026

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

11%

$1.7M Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Crypto

$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?

50%

$1.7M Vol.Ends Dec 31, 2026

Geopolitics

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

3%

$1.4M Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Trump renames AI by...?

September 3050%

December 31100%

$977.8K Vol.Jan 1, 2027

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen46%

Jordan Bardella1%

$965.7K Vol.Apr 19, 2027

Culture

Satoshi's identity be proven by...?

2%

$938.1K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

OOctober 3178%

NNovember 3037%

$866.5K Vol.Oct 31, 2026

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

September 30, 202650%

December 31, 202650%

2 more

$757.6K Vol.Jun 23, 2027

Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by...?

December 31, 20262%

December 31, 202722%

$695.4K Vol.Jan 1, 2027

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep63%

D Senate, R House1%

3 more

$611.8K Vol.Nov 4, 2026

US military draft authorized in 2026?

4%

$544.3K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?

5%

$535.2K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

December 3134%

October 315%

2 more

$518.5K Vol.Jan 1, 2027

Culture

SBF released from custody in 2026?

2%

$468.2K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Politics

Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?

5%

$342.9K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?

3%

$337.5K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Trump x Greenland deal signed by...?

September 23100%

September 25100%

$335.2K Vol.Jan 1, 2027

India strike on Pakistan by...?

11%

$333.6K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?

September 30100%

October 31100%

3 more

$324.0K Vol.Jan 1, 2027

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%

Republican Party10%

$314.8K Vol.Nov 4, 2026

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+2%

Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%11%

$297.7K Vol.Oct 26, 2026

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

16%

$296.7K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?

5%

$295.5K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

NATO article 5 before 2027?

5%

$283.1K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

11%

$281.5K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?

December 31, 20267%

March 31, 202714%

$275.4K Vol.Apr 1, 2027

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Donald Trump2%

J.D. Vance47%

$257.6K Vol.Nov 8, 2028

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

2%

$255.9K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Benjamin Netanyahu31%

Naftali Bennett13%

$249.0K Vol.Oct 28, 2026

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

4%

$248.9K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

Hormuz Agreement; R Senate2%

Hormuz Agreement; D Senate3%

$241.8K Vol.Nov 4, 2026

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

5%

$231.0K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?

December 311%

June 30, 20279%

$225.5K Vol.Jan 1, 2027

Politics

Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?

3%

$223.2K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

China x India military clash by...?

6%

$222.3K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will $LAPTOP flip $TRUMP by ___?

December 31, 2026100%

June 30, 2027100%

$213.9K Vol.Jan 1, 2028

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

160-1790%

120-1390%

$196.3K Vol.Oct 20, 2026

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

1%

$195.6K Vol.Ends Nov 1, 2026

Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

2%

$195.4K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?

4%

$186.4K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

5%

$182.4K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Business

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

10%

$182.2K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

3%

$180.0K Vol.Ends Jan 1, 2027

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Donald Trump50%

Pope Leo XIV0%

$176.7K Vol.Apr 1, 2027

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom15%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17%