This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.854785° N, 37.770676° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
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Comments (50)
pink.impala Oct 1
but we cant fold to ISW and the more we annoy them the better. and the bet is already much about how ISW will react in different situations anyway
pink.impala Oct 1
sorry i shouldnt have come at you so rude
Bromley86 Oct 1
It's not that. ISW have said they very much do not approve of us. The past few days have shown us that there are a number of ways that ISW could fuck us, if they chose to.
Bromley86 Oct 1
No, his answer was 99% truthful.
pink.impala Sep 30
i think your a degen, lil self hating degen
pink.impala Sep 30
oooh we must not disturb the important ppl on ISW 🤡
Voland6777 Sep 30
Nah, impossible - it has a 80 lvl high magic barrier🤣
Leopoldprime Sep 30
Gg
tsybka Sep 30
Mala Tokmachka 😅
drachenlord1710 Sep 30
gg guys, whats the next village we bet on?
Seriip Sep 30
Good :)
tsybka Sep 30
My pet monkey watches the map 24/7.
Voland6777 Sep 30
How do you track an update that fast?
tsybka Sep 30
gg
tsybka Sep 30
They replied just recently: Good morning, Thank you for writing and for your interest in ISW's research. I have alerted the map team to this issue, and they are reviewing it for any necessary corrections. Thank you for bringing this to our attention. Please let us know if you spot any other instances of this issue or if there is anything further we can do.
Bromley86 Sep 30
I'm not sure that a bunch of degens mailing them will be ideal, seeing as they're not our no.1 fan as it is. Unless people email in their capacity as a student, or similar.
LearnSlowly111 Sep 30
You only need to wait for confirmation and the full map update if there were any changes. In this case, there’s no infiltration, so nothing has changed, and the resolution will be settled as soon as the time runs out.
rafael7 Sep 30
Keep deleting your stupid comments.
caputino Sep 30
Why is he wrong?
rafael7 Sep 30
Don't be stupid. It's completely the opposite.
rafael7 Sep 30
September 28 and 29 that elements of the Russian 3rd Combined Arms Army (CAA) conducted an infiltration mission between Starodubivka and Psykunivka (both northeast of Slovyansk) and into southeastern Mykolaivka (east of Slovyansk).
UZZ242 Sep 30
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. Less than 24 hours remain until 23:59. That means there is no way for a full 24 hours to elapse before the end of September 30—even if ISW were to update the map shading right now. So, it is impossible for the event to resolve as "YES" on September 30? Or am I misunderstanding the rules?
unconsciousstatistician Sep 30
have started replying 😂😂😂😂
tsybka Sep 30
understandingwar . org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-29-2026
LearnSlowly111 Sep 30
where i can find daily report?
tsybka Sep 30
Well, I wish you luck.
firewalker923 Sep 30
Their latest screenshot is identical to their latest map, except they marked the spot where the observer claims an infiltration group is operating. Such a mark has NEVER appeared on an ISW map. If ISW thought that spot merited a layer, then ISW would apply a layer. Saying they forgot to mark it on the map is simply an assumption you've made, that has no evidence behind it.
AntonKovac Sep 30
Yeah yeah stop manipulating the market
tsybka Sep 30
In their daily reports, ISW confirmed the infiltration in the southern part of the city. A new zone is also visible on their screenshot, but they forgot to mark it on the map itself. I recommend emailing point out this error. They usually review messages and, recently, have even started replying to them.
Voland6777 Sep 30
Ahh, ok
bohdancio Sep 30
The 24-hour requirement doesn’t necessarily mean that those 24 hours have to be within the same month. If the map is updated on September 30, the 24-hour period can extend into October. What matters is that the map remains updated for 24 hours before it can resolve YES.
Voland6777 Sep 30
There is an update report, but ISW map itself is not updated and by rules it needs 24 hours to keep map updated, before it can be resolved as - "YES"
bohdancio Sep 30
It’s September 30 today! Once they make the changes visible to everyone today, nothing should stop this from resolving YES (unless they decide to joke).
Voland6777 Sep 30
But map wasn't updated, so September should have - No result
bohdancio Sep 30
ISW just published their daily assessment😊😊
SlowFog Sep 30
That spike was all caused by two accounts and they are both getting rinsed on their trade
SlowFog Sep 30
That spike over the last 15 hours is just two accounts, see the activity. Caused a panic.
drachenlord1710 Sep 30
isw is not out yet
SlowFog Sep 30
😅
Seriip Sep 30
This is what happens when you fly in feet-first, following the crowd without checking first. ISW is running true to form, as always. Thanks everyone :)
Seriip Sep 30
Lol, well, they really took us for a ride)))
antofmanzur Sep 29
hahaha ikr, easy af
drachenlord1710 Sep 29
there was no infiltrarion yesterday and Ukraine has the initiative in this direction so...
antofmanzur Sep 29
it´ll end in around 3 hours, no news, NO has value
drachenlord1710 Sep 29
I love how Russians still dont understand what infiltrations are...
ProxyOne Sep 29
Just Mashkovets
ProxyOne Sep 29
We are betting on how the ISW will color its map. Real war and Russian war correspondent — that’s not what this is about.
rafael7 Sep 29
leTARDssaire spoke out
leCommissaire Sep 29
game over
caputino Sep 29
Just Mashkovets, or is there anyone else?
